I definitely think they’re undercutting their own newsroom. They’re not only legitimizing the prediction markets by saying, “Hey, these are our partners. We’re endorsing them,” but they’re also using the information in those prediction markets in order to make the news, which in the world of pseudo-events can create this weird ouroboros.
\[p(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n}y_i l_i(x)\]
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested a Spanish-language Tennessee news outlet’s reporter who had done stories critical of the agency – but agents didn’t have a warrant, according to court documents filed recently by her lawyer.。PDF资料对此有专业解读
继续实施更加积极的财政政策。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89万亿元、比上年增加2300亿元。一般公共预算支出规模将首次达到30万亿元、比上年增加约1.27万亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持“两重”建设、“两新”工作等。拟发行特别国债3000亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，完善专项债券项目负面清单管理和自审自发试点，重点支持建设重大项目、置换隐性债务、消化政府拖欠账款等。今年财政支出继续保持相当规模，要持续用力优化支出结构，更加注重支持提振消费、投资于人、保障民生等方面，提高财政资金使用效益。中央财政增加对地方财力性转移支付规模，开展整合统筹使用转移支付资金试点，增强地方自主财力和统筹能力。压实分级保障主体责任，兜牢基层“三保”底线。各级政府要更好“当家理财”，建立健全增收节支机制，积极盘活利用存量资源资产，严肃财经纪律，强化预算约束，严控一般性支出，坚决落实过紧日子的要求，务必把省下来的每一分钱都用到发展的关键点、群众的急需处。
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This past weekend, after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket erupted with activity. That included extremely contentious markets around the death of Iran’s supreme leader, and some that appeared to be rife with insider trading from people with advanced knowledge of US military actions.